Theremin Sales / Market

This is another cry for help.. :(

I am being forced (by my bank) to prepare some sort of business plan / projection.. Although the bank manager has not yet called me an idiot to my face, his incredulity at my lack of business "sense" is becoming palpable..

Any information about the size and value of the Theremin market would help me greatly.. or any suggestion as to where I can find such data..

Please email me fred[at]fundes[dot]co[dot]uk or reply here.

These damn bean-counters always seem to choose the worst moment to behave like the [i]B[/i]ankers they are !

Fred, you need a bean counter of your own to deal with the bank's bean counters.

I spent long enough collecting National Insurance from self-employed people to know that the small businesses that go under quickest are those who do not believe that financial expertise is a necessary business expense.

That would be difficult to estimate. One would need to know what niche in the market your product is designed to fill. That is, approximately what your product would sell for and what added value it represents relative to other comparably priced products.
(I don't expect you to provide those answers to us right now.)

If I were you, I'd gather statistics on how many Etherwaves and Etherwave Pro's were made and sold. I'd also make a note of what the now discontimued E-Pro's are selling for, as well as other desirable vintage models, i.e. Ethervox, Series 91a, etc.

Also keep in mind that, to my knowledge, the Wavefront Classics that are once again available are not flying off the shelf. It *may* be due to the fact that too much of the cost is in the fine cabinetry, but that is pure speculation.

Using what you know about your potential product, it may be wise to do a little "market research". I imagine the easiest way would be to find a website that could host a poll for you and post links to it on other related (theremin, electronic music, etc.) websites.

You've already polled us about the features we would like. However, a public poll would at least give you some idea of the number of potential customers interested in your product.

Good Luck!

[i]"I'd gather statistics on how many Etherwaves and Etherwave Pro's were made and sold." - Jeff [/i]

Yes - I want to .. But have no idea where to start looking for data like this.. Anyone have any idea about where such data can be found?

[i]"Fred, you need a bean counter of your own to deal with the bank's bean counters." - Gordon [/i]

I have my business financial affairs being dealt with by a contracted accountant - And yes, she is the reason that I am still in business - her advice regarding legitimately extracting every penny I can from the system has paid her fees many times over..

This matter, however, is not within her remit (or ability).. I need to present realistic projections of turn-over (# units I could sell, price I could expect to get for each unit) My cost per unit, (including any up-front investment in production tooling, bulk purchase of parts / PCB's etc) and resulting profits.

Realistic numbers for potential sales and pricing needs to be backed up as much as possible by figures from the real world - not just figures I grab from the Aether..

And I am finding a source for such figures difficult.

I have only had a "Business Plan" based on product features and target price - Originally this was ok - but the cost of the product now leaves no profit if I was to sell at my target price.. I can substantially reduce cost if I produce larger volumes - but this requires up-front money.. which is where the bank comes into the picture. My bank manager's incredulity comes from the fact that I have embarked on this venture with no REAL business plan, and no REAL idea about what sales I can expect.

[i]"One would need to know what niche in the market your product is designed to fill" - Jeff [/i]

I am doing several Theremins based on a common core - All have playability (linearity etc) as top feature.. Plan is to target the serious Thereminist and provide an upgradable instrument that can grow as they require. Starting price will probably be about £400.. Fully expanded unit will probably be £1000.. But these prices are rough - details like cabinet costs, packaging etc have not been accurately costed.. Also, it all comes down to volume - if I build these individually the price would be at least triple.

I am aiming for E-Pro "equivalence" at about £600.. Direct comparisons are not really possible however, as there are features included in all the versions which are not available on any other Theremin (including semi-automatic calibration and mildly focussed pitch antenna which allows the theremin to be used in studio environments surrounded by equipment, and allows other persons to come close to the back of the Theremin without influencing the pitch)

Unfortunately, these Theremins are too complex to provide as a kit - although I may provide it as an assembled 'frame' which purchasers could fit into their own cabinets.

But a lot of the above will depend on whether I can get any money from my bank, and if so, how much .. I now have the 'core' fully working - but there is still loads to do before it can go into production.

I received a message from Thomas Grillo a couple months ago that offhandedly mentioned "There's only 14,000 Etherwaves out there".

I don't know where or how he came by that info (one might imagine from Moog).

I hope he doesn't mind me sharing part of his email for a good cause :)

I just received another message from Mr. Grillo today. He stated that he did get that info from Moog and that you might want to add 1000 to that total since the 14000 number is about a year old.

I'd like to add that it appears that most, if not all, of the final "special edition", walnut-backed Etherwave Pro's had serial numbers in the 0400 range. So, I think it is safe to say there were a maximum of 500 E-Pro's manufactured.

As an additional reference, from what I understand, there were between ten to thirteen Keppinger tube theremins built. Unfortunately, I don't recall what the original selling price was.

I've never heard any details about how many Wavefront Classic's were built or sold.

Does anyone friendly with Ms. Kavina know how many Tvox Tour's were built or sold?

I got the info from Wilco Botermans, who still talks from time to time with George Pawlow, that about 200 tVox Tour had been produced.


[b]*cry* and I can't get a single one *cry*[/b]

Hmmmm....That's interesting....and strange.

After seven years, I'm still aware of only three people who own a Tvox Tour; Lydia, Barbara, and Wilco.

So, who owns the other 197 Tvox's? Does anyone know what they sold for originally?

Susi (Ms. Hypnotique) has one.